Shelby Heinecke

LLM-based user simulation is the primary mechanism for end-to-end agent evaluation, yet simulated users are poor proxies for real humans: unconstrained LLM defaults produce a Formalism Ceiling (style match rates of 6–8% against real users), while hand-crafted behavioral directives trigger Directive Amplification, where models hyper-interpret instructions into unnatural behavioral extremes that vary dramatically across simulator models. We present RealUserSim, the first user simulation framework grounded in real behavioral data. From 14,000+ authentic human–LLM conversations (WildChat), we extract 7,275 executable behavioral profiles and use them to ground LLM simulators. A fidelity benchmark (PT3) on 600 conversations across 71+ domains with anti-leakage controls shows that grounded simulation raises match rate from 24.2% to 45.3% across five behavioral dimensions. Agent evaluation on TauBench with 6 simulator models and extensive analysis shows that grounded simulation acts as a realistic stress test, surfacing three failure mechanisms invisible to cooperative simulators (mean -3.2% to -3.5% task success degradation), while Directive Amplification in existing benchmarks produces unrealistic behavior that compromises the validity of agent evaluation.