Zhiqi Gao

Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present Train-to-Test ($T^2$) scaling laws that jointly optimize model size, training tokens, and number of inference samples under fixed end-to-end budgets. $T^2$ modernizes pretraining scaling laws with pass@$k$ modeling used for test-time scaling, then jointly optimizes pretraining and test-time decisions. Forecasts from $T^2$ are robust over distinct modeling approaches: measuring joint scaling effect on the task loss and modeling impact on task accuracy. Across eight downstream tasks, we find that when accounting for inference cost, optimal pretraining decisions shift radically into the overtraining regime, well-outside of the range of standard pretraining scaling suites. We validate our results by pretraining heavily overtrained models in the optimal region that $T^2$ scaling forecasts, confirming their substantially stronger performance compared to pretraining scaling alone. Finally, as frontier LLMs are post-trained, we show that our findings survive the post-training stage, making $T^2$ scaling meaningful in modern deployments.

Text-to-optimization requires two separable capabilities: modeling -- choosing the right optimization structure -- and binding -- grounding every coefficient, index, and parameter in the concrete problem data. We study this via Text2Opt-Bench, a scalable benchmark of solver-verified optimization problems spanning 12 categories, from textbook linear programs to stochastic and multi-objective formulations with up to thousands of variables. Across 10+ models, we find that accuracy collapses as instance data grows, even when the formulation itself is simple. We call this the effective binding limit. We study it with a family of techniques, BIND, that externalize numeric data to structured files so the model binds data programmatically rather than transcribing from the prompt. When using an oracle for externalizing data, we recover between 12 and 27 accuracy points, confirming binding as a key -- but recoverable -- failure mode. In a deployable setting without oracle access, we validate our hypothesis by finetuning a model exclusively on binding and show that it outperforms end-to-end SFT and RL across three structurally distinct optimization categories, with a 1.5B binding specialist alone matching a 7B end-to-end baseline.