Tommi Jaakkola

While test-time scaling has enabled large language models to solve highly difficult tasks, state-of-the-art results come at exorbitant compute costs. These inefficiencies can be attributed to the miscalibration of post-trained language models, and the lack of calibration in popular sampling techniques. Here, we present Online Reasoning Calibration (ORCA), a framework for calibrating the sampling process that draws upon conformal prediction and test-time training. Specifically, we introduce a meta-learning procedure that updates the calibration module for each input. This allows us to provide valid confidence estimates under distributional shift, e.g. in thought patterns that occur across different stages of reasoning, or in prompt distributions between model development and deployment. ORCA not only provides theoretical guarantees on conformal risks, but also empirically shows higher efficiency and generalization across different reasoning tasks. At risk level $\delta{=}0.1$, ORCA improves Qwen2.5-32B efficiency on in-distribution tasks with savings up to 47.5\% with supervised labels and 40.7\% with self-consistency labels. Under zero-shot out-of-domain settings, it improves MATH-500 savings from 24.8\% of the static calibration baseline to 67.0\% while maintaining a low empirical error rate, and the same trend holds across model families and downstream benchmarks.

Agent skills, which are reusable, domain-specific knowledge artifacts, have become a popular mechanism for extending LLM-based agents, yet formally benchmarking skill usage performance remains scarce. Existing skill benchmarking efforts focus primarily on idealized conditions, where LLMs are directly provided with hand-crafted, narrowly-tailored skills for each task. This setting reflects customized workflow automation, but does not cover the complementary case where the LLM agent must search for and select relevant skills on its own, and even the closest matching skills may not be well-tailored for the task. In this paper, we conduct the first comprehensive study of skill utility under progressively challenging realistic settings, where agents must retrieve skills from a large collection of 34k real-world skills and may not have access to any hand-curated skills. Our findings reveal that the benefits of skills are fragile: performance gains degrade consistently as settings become more realistic, with pass rates approaching no-skill baselines in the most challenging scenarios. To narrow this gap, we study skill refinement strategies, including query-specific and query-agnostic approaches, and we show that query-specific refinement substantially recovers lost performance when the initial skills are of reasonable relevance and quality. We further demonstrate the generality of retrieval and refinement on Terminal-Bench 2.0, where they improve the pass rate of Claude Opus 4.6 from 57.7% to 65.5%. Our results, consistent across multiple models, highlight both the promise and the current limitations of skills for LLM-based agents. Our code is available at https://github.com/UCSB-NLP-Chang/Skill-Usage.